‘Liquid gold’ no longer? Olive oil prices could drop by half, says world’s largest producer

Good news for lovers of “liquid gold.” After reaching all-time highs at the beginning of the year, olive oil prices could drop by half in the coming months, CNBC reports.

After weathering “one of the most difficult moments in the history of the sector,” olive oil prices appear to be declining, according to the world’s largest producer. Spain’s Deoleo, the company behind olive oil brands such as Bertolli, Carapelli and Carbonell, expects olive oil prices to “nearly halve” in early 2025.

Two years of searing heat in Spain and drought across southern Europe took its toll on harvests and led to unprecedented price hikes worldwide. A shortage of olive oil spurred a crime wave in Spain and high prices caused people to cut their consumption.

In September, a litre of olive oil cost 80 per cent more than it did two years ago ($15.81 in 2024 versus $8.74 in 2022), according to Statistics Canada‘s monthly average retail prices. In the EU, olive oil prices have surged by more than 50 per cent since 2023. In the U.K., they climbed by 150 per cent compared to the end of 2021, according to Euro News.

Now, prices appear to be dropping, and the 2024-2025 harvest looks promising, especially in Spain and other top-producing countries such as Greece and Tunisia, CNBC reports.

Though the crisis has begun to subside, Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer at Deoleo, hesitated to say it was over. He told CNBC that uncertainty about the harvest remains and that there’s still “tension” in prices, especially for extra virgin and other high-quality oils. “However, the outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize, and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases.”

Provided the harvest and weather conditions are stable, Guzmán said he expects “a gradual normalization” of prices starting in November, December and January in Spain, which, as the world’s largest producer, is “a global reference.” When olive oil prices were at their highest, Spanish shoppers paid nine to ten euros per litre; Deoleo reportedly expects prices to drop to roughly five euros. Guzmán told CNBC, “Indications are that if everything develops normally, especially if rains continue to favour production, we could see a downward trend in prices throughout 2025.”

University of Guelph food economist Michael von Massow told 1130 NewsRadio that he predicts Canadian prices will drop by about $3 this fall. “It depends specifically on what kind of olive oil you’re buying, the quality, the quantity, but I don’t think we’ll get back down to the numbers we saw last year,” which ranged from $10.26 to $13.33 per litre, according to Statistics Canada.

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